Summary of Phase 2 Findings

In this portion of the report we have presented the findings from Phase 2 of VMA’s Skilled Trades Study – a survey of Virginia manufacturers. The purpose of this survey was to obtain primary data on skilled trades employment, evaluate potential refinements of the occupational categories used to define skilled trades, and compile information on certain hiring and training issues.

Based on the findings from the Phase 1 analysis, several changes were made to the list of skilled trades evaluated in Phase 2 of the VMA Skilled Trades Study. Most notable among these was the inclusion of a new job category – Manufacturing Technician – that is not represented in the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) taxonomy. This new job category was included in the survey to better reflect the reality of modern manufacturing, where production machinery often means sophisticated multi-million dollar equipment involving the use of robotics and complex numerical controls, as opposed to the comparatively simple mechanical devices of the past.

In addition to adding the Manufacturing Technician job classification, eight other skilled trades were evaluated in the Phase 2 survey. These were: 1) Chemical Technicians, 2) Electronics Technicians and Repairers, 3) (Industrial) Electricians, 4) Machine Maintenance Specialists, 5) (CNC and Conventional) Machine Tool Operators, 6) (CNC and Conventional) Machinists, 7) Printing Machine Operators, and 8) Welders.

Six key findings emerged from Phase 2:

1. Growth in skilled trades employment is likely to far outstrip employment growth in most other occupations:
   • Total employment in the nine skilled trades evaluated in Phase 2 is expected to climb by about 4.1 percent per year between 2007 and 2010, for a total increase of 12.8 percent. To put this growth rate in perspective, the Virginia Employment Commission currently projects that, over the same period, statewide growth across all occupations in Virginia will only be 1.6 percent per year.
   • In seven out of the nine skilled trades evaluated, annual employment growth is expected to be substantially above the statewide average.
   • Manufacturing Technicians are expected to experience the largest growth in employment, at 5.2 percent per year.
2. The cumulative number of skilled trades openings from 2007 through 2010 is estimated to be 46,870:
   • 23.1 percent of these openings will be driven by retirements.
   • Manufacturing Technicians are expected to experience the largest number of openings, accounting for 22,606 of the 46,870.
3. The magnitude of the gap, or shortfall, in trained skilled trades workers may be much greater than was revealed in Phase 1 of this study, where the analysis was based on existing labor data:
   • Where the Phase 1 analysis showed an annual gap in trained workers of approximately 2,441, data from the survey indicate that this number may be as high as 11,751 (although, it is important to note that much of this increase is attributable to the introduction of the new job category Manufacturing Technician – a job category for which no corresponding educational pipeline data are available).
   • Where the Phase 1 analysis showed that the cumulative gap between 2007 and 2012 was around 14,646, data from the survey indicate that this number could be as high as 70,506 (although, again, it is important to note that much of this increase is attributable to the introduction of the new job category Manufacturing Technician).
   • Where the percentage of the statewide need for trained skilled trades workers accommodated by the current educational pipeline was 33 percent according to the findings from the Phase 1 analysis (refers only to the skilled trades evaluated in Phase 2), data from the survey indicate that this number could be as low as 12 percent.
4. An overwhelming majority of manufacturers approved of the proposed Manufacturing Technician job category.
   • 96 percent of manufacturers who responded to the survey thought that Manufacturing Technicians captured a class of manufacturing jobs that are not adequately represented in the traditional definition of skilled trades occupations.
   • 70 percent of the manufacturers who responded to the survey were supportive of adding Manufacturing Technicians to the official BLS occupational taxonomy.
5. Entry-level workers suffer from low skills:
   • Nearly half of the manufacturers who responded to the survey rated the soft skills and measurable skills preparation of recent entry-level hires as fair to very poor.
   • Seven out of ten rated recent entry-level hires’ knowledge of basic manufacturing principles as fair to very poor.
6. Statewide credentialing could greatly improve the hiring process:
   • 83 percent of the manufacturers who responded to the survey agreed that there should be additional requirements for career and technical education in Virginia’s K-12 education system.
   • 66 percent of respondents agreed that Virginia should institute a standardized manufacturing skills credential system that would certify the competencies of entry-level and advanced manufacturing workers.
   • 65 percent of the respondents agreed that the public image of manufacturing occupations is a major contributing factor to the problems employers experience in recruiting skilled workers.