Summary of Phase 1 Findings
In this portion of the report we have presented the findings from Phase I of the VMA Skilled Trades Study. The purpose of this initial phase of the study was to: 1) provide a preliminary analysis of the scope and magnitude of the problems associated with meeting the demand for skilled trades workers in Virginia, and 2) better prepare us for Phase II of the study by illuminating areas where existing data may be inadequate to assess those problems.
The specific skilled trades evaluated in this portion of the VMA Skilled Trades Study were: 1) Chemical Equipment Operators, 2) Chemical Technicians, 3) Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, 4) Electricians and Electrical Technicians, 5) Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, 6) Machine Maintenance Specialists, 7) Machinists, 8) Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, 9) Printing Machine Operators, 10) Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators, 11) Tool and Die Makers, and 12) Welders.
Four key findings emerged from Phase 1:
- There are several instances where the current statewide educational pipeline for skilled trades appears inadequate to meet future needs:
- Overall, the average percentage of statewide need met across all twelve of the skilled trades evaluated in this portion of the study was only 44 percent.
- The cumulative gap between 2007 and 2012 (the shortfall in needed skilled trades workers) is estimated to be 12,894 trained workers.
- In two of the twelve skilled trades evaluated (i.e., Chemical Equipment Operators and Chemical Technicians) the percentage of statewide need met was zero.
- In six more (i.e., Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters; Machine Maintenance Specialists; Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic; Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators; Tool and Die Makers; and Welders) the percentage of statewide need met fell below 25 percent.
- And in one more (i.e., Machinists) the percentage of statewide need met fell below 75 percent.
- Only in three of the skilled trades evaluated (i.e., Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators; Electrician and Electrical Technicians; and Printing Machine Operators) was the percentage of statewide need met above 75 percent. Moreover, for one of these skilled trades, Electricians and Electrical Technicians, this finding is largely attributable to an artifact of the data where a large number of the graduates in that educational pipeline are actually not typically employed in manufacturing.
- In addition, there appear to be several regional imbalances in the demand and supply for specific skilled trades:
- Chemical Equipment Operators and Chemical Technicians – there appears to be a potential need for additional training programs in Central Virginia.
- Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators – there appear to be potential unmet needs in Southwest Virginia and Hampton Roads.
- Machine Maintenance Specialists – there appear to be opportunities for enhancing the educational pipeline for these workers in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
- Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operator, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic, and Printing Machine Operators – there may exist unmet needs in the Valley Region.
- Welders – there appear to be opportunities for enhancing the educational pipeline for these workers in Hampton Roads.
- Analysis of institutional capacity within the Virginia Community College System, one of the major providers of trained skilled trades workers, indicates that 10 of the system’s 23 colleges are already operating at, or above, capacity. This constraint likely inhibits their ability to add to the skilled trades educational pipeline with existing resources. Moreover, it bears notice that these ten institutions primarily serve the urban centers of Northern Virginia, Central Virginia, Hampton Roads, the Valley Region, and Roanoke, where the bulk of the demand for skilled trades workers takes place.
- Several factors were revealed in this portion of the study that point to the need for a survey of Virginia manufacturers to obtain primary data
on skilled trades employment.
- In certain skilled trades occupations (e.g., Electricians and Electrical Technicians) it is difficult to accurately assess the manufacturing-specific demand and supply of the skilled trade workers from existing data. There are three reasons for this. First, on the demand side, industry-specific occupation data are often imputed using the average proportion of industry employment comprised of that occupation, not direct measurements. This raises questions of accuracy, particularly at the regional level. Second, on the supply side, existing crosswalks between occupations and related training programs are insufficient to identify the proportion of graduates from specific training programs that go into specific occupations. As a result, it is difficult to gauge the true educational pipeline of trained workers for specific skilled trades. Third, the outsourcing by manufacturers of certain skilled trade functions to other industries (e.g., construction) also makes it difficult to quantify the manufacturingspecific demand and supply of the skilled trade workers, because those numbers are credited to the other industry in existing data.
- The Virginia Employment Commission (VEC) does not forecast occupational employment directly. Instead, the occupational forecast is derived from the VEC’s forecast of industry employment. Any errors associated with this derivation are likely to be exacerbated in “small numbers” situations where a specific occupation comprises a small proportion of the overall employment in a given industry – a characteristic exhibited by many of the skilled trades.