Gap Analysis

In this section we compare the estimated demand for skilled trades workers with the estimated supply to identify potential gaps in the educational pipeline for skilled trades workers, both from a statewide perspective and regionally.

OVERVIEW
Table 27 compares the projected statewide average annual openings for each of the twelve skilled trades evaluated in Phase 1 of the VMA Skilled Trades Study with its 2005 pipeline of qualified graduates to identify: 1) the gap, or shortfall, in trained workers, and 2) the percentage of statewide need met. In reviewing these data, it is important to keep in mind that job vacancies can also be filled by qualified individuals who are not recent graduates, or who are recruited from out of state. As a result, the shortfalls detailed in Table 27 should be viewed as approximations of relative need, not a precise measure of need.

As these data show, in two of the twelve skilled trades (i.e., 1) Chemical Equipment Operators and 2) Chemical Technicians) the percentage of statewide need met was zero. In six more (i.e., 1) Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, 2) Machine Maintenance Specialists, 3) Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic, 4) Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators, 5) Tool and Die Makers, and 6) Welders) the percentage of statewide need met fell below 25 percent. And in one more (i.e., Machinists) the percentage of statewide need met fell below 75 percent.

Only in three of the skilled trades evaluated (i.e., 1) Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, 2) Electrician and Electrical Technicians, and 3) Printing Machine Operators) was the percentage of statewide need met above 75 percent. Moreover, for one of these skilled trades, Electricians and Electrical Technicians, this finding is largely attributable to an artifact of the data where a large number of the graduates in that educational pipeline are actually not typically employed in manufacturing.

Overall, the annual gap in trained skilled trades workers is 2,197, with a cumulative gap between 2007 and 2012 of 12,894. Comparing these number to the pipeline of trained workers reveals that the total percentage of statewide need met across all twelve of the skilled trades evaluated in this portion of the study is only 44 percent.