Demand for Skilled Trades Workers

This section uses existing labor data and projections to evaluate the likely future demand for skilled trades workers within the Commonwealth and provides additional information on the specific industries that hire these workers, the exact nature of the skills these jobs require, and the regional distribution of employment demand for each skilled trade.

DATA AND METHODS
The data for this portion of the study were obtained from four primary sources. Wage data were taken from the Virginia Employment Commission’s (VEC’s) State Wage Survey. Data on the distribution of occupational employment across various industries were taken from the VEC’s Virginia Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix. Occupational skills profiles were taken from the U.S. Department of Labor’s O-NET database. Employment data and projected average annual openings by occupation were taken from the VEC’s 2002-2012 occupational projection.

Because of the importance of the VEC’s occupational forecast to the conclusions drawn in this study, it is probably worthwhile to briefly discuss the method the VEC uses to obtain those projections. The VEC does not forecast occupational employment directly. Instead, it first uses historical data (primarily obtained from the Quarterly Census of Covered Employment and Wages) to project future trends in industry employment. With some adjustment, these industry employment forecasts are then mapped through the Virginia Industry- Occupation Employment Matrix to derive an occupational employment projection.

This means that the accuracy of the occupational forecasts is dependent on two things: 1) the accuracy of the VEC’s industry employment projection, and 2) the accuracy of its industry-occupation employment matrix. To the extent that either is off, the occupational projection will be off, and where both are off that error will be cumulative. In addition, the magnitude of these errors is likely to be exacerbated in “small numbers” situations where a specific occupation comprises a small proportion of the overall employment in a given industry, or where that proportion is subject to extensive inter-regional or inter-firm variation. Importantly, this condition characterizes many of the skilled trades.

OVERVIEW
Table 1 lists the twelve skilled trades selected for analysis in Phase 1. For each occupation, Table 1 provides data on: 1) the estimated employment within that occupation in 2002, 2) the amount of that employment which was within the manufacturing sector, 3) occupational employment within manufacturing as a proportion of total occupational employment, and 4) occupational employment within manufacturing as a proportion of total manufacturing employment.

For example, as depicted in the first row of Table 1, it is estimated that the number of Chemical Equipment Operators employed in Virginia in 2002 was 1,506. Of that 1,506, 1,445, or 95.9 percent, were employed in manufacturing. In addition, these 1,445 workers made up 0.5 percent of the total manufacturing workforce. In sum, total employment in the twelve skilled trades listed in Table 1 is estimated to have been 109,837 in 2002, with 51,969, or 47.3 percent, employed in the manufacturing sector. These twelve skilled trades are also estimated to have accounted for approximately 16.2 percent of total manufacturing employment in Virginia in 2002.